A new Franklin & Marshall Poll released Thursday has Tom Wolf leading his Republican opponent Scott Wagner 59 to 33 percent.
Bob Casey is leading challenger Lou Barletta in the U.S. Senate race 50 to 35 percent, according to the survey.
“This poll shows that both incumbent Democrats have comfortable leads in their respective races. Gov. Wolf’s lead is so large that some might rightfully be skeptical that such an outcome is possible given the current state of electoral politics.
“There is historical precedent for large electoral victories in paired Gubernatorial-Senate contests.
“In 1998, incumbent Republican Gov. Tom Ridge handily defeated State Representative Ivan Itkin by 26 points at the same time that Senator Arlen Specter defeated Democrat Bill Lloyd by 26 points.
“More recently in 2006, incumbent Democrat Ed Rendell defeated Lynn Swann by 20 points while Bob Casey, Jr. defeated incumbent Republican Senator Rick Santorum by 18 points.
“This survey suggests that the primary reasons the Democratic incumbents’ large leads result from two factors, Democratic enthusiasm and Democratic cohesion.
“Democrats and Republicans are equally motivated at the moment to vote, which negates the turnout advantage Republicans typically have in midterm elections.
“Second, Democrats are voting as a block for Democratic candidates, whereas Republicans seem a bit more likely to split their tickets at the moment.”
More Results
More Results
The Poll finds a 10 point increase in the number of registered voters “very interested” in the 2018 election with Republicans (75 percent) and Democrats (73 percent) about equal in their enthusiasm.
Democrats lead Republicans in the enthusiasm in the September F&M Poll 64 to 58 percent.
President Trump remains a motivating force for the midterm elections. 53 percent of voters prefer Democratic candidates for U.S. House seats than Republicans--38 percent-- mainly as a vote against Trump and the Republicans in Congress.
83 percent of those who plan to vote for a Republican Congressional candidate are casting their vote to support Trump and Republicans in Congress.
The confirmation of Brett Kavanaugh (63 percent), efforts to repeal the Affordable Care Act (ACA) (60 percent), and the separation of immigrant families (57 percent) have each made voters a “great deal more interested” in voting.
Only 28 percent of voters surveyed believe they are better off than they were a year ago and 33 percent of voters say they have seen an increase in income because of the federal tax cut. 35 percent believe the country is headed in the right direction.
Excellent or good approval ratings for Gov. Wolf (54 percent) and U.S. Senator Bob Casey (43 percent) have remained “remarkably stable” compared to prior surveys.
President Trump’s approval rating is at 36 percent with voters, which is about the same as President Obama’s at this point in his Presidency.
Click Here for a copy of the Poll results.
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